出轨的女人

据报道，美加贸易谈判于昨夜宣告破裂。    Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday emphasized that China and Ecuador should strengthen the synergy of their development strategies and implement the cooperation plan for jointly building the Belt and Road.    The two countries should deliver on cooperation projects in energy, minerals, infrastructure, finance and other sectors, and actively explore cooperation in areas including the digital economy, green development, new energy and artificial intelligence, Xi said when holding talks with President of the Republic of Ecuador Daniel Roy-Gilchrist Noboa Azín in Beijing.    Noboa is on a state visit to China from Aug. 16 to 23 at the invitation of Xi.    Noting this year marks the 10th anniversary of the China-Ecuador comprehensive strategic partnership, Xi said no matter how the international landscape changes, China has always viewed China-Ecuador relations from a strategic and long-term perspective.    China stands ready to work with Ecuador to continuously elevate bilateral relations to new heights and deliver greater benefits to the people of both countries, he said.    Xi said China respects and supports Ecuador in exploring a development path that suits its national conditions. China is willing to intensify exchanges between the two countries across various sectors, including governments, legislatures, and political parties, and enhance experience sharing on governance, he added.    The Chinese president encouraged both sides to continue unlocking the potential of the free trade agreement so that its dividends can benefit more businesses and consumers. He also expressed China's willingness to cooperate with Ecuador in areas such as healthcare, poverty alleviation, disaster prevention and mitigation, in support of Ecuador's national development.    Calling China an important partner and friend of Ecuador, Noboa said bilateral relations have entered a new phase, delivering tangible benefits to the two peoples.    He said Ecuador is willing to deepen political mutual trust with China, supports China in safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and respects China's position on the Taiwan question.    Noting that Ecuador attaches great importance to cooperation with China, Noboa called on the two sides to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in economy and trade, finance, minerals, renewable energy, science and technology, culture and other fields.    Ecuador will expand its exports to China, and welcomes more Chinese enterprises to invest and operate in Ecuador, which is expected to help improve the well-being of the people and facilitate the development of the country, he added.    The two heads of state exchanged views on the situation in the Latin American and Caribbean region.    Xi said China supports Latin American countries in upholding independence and self-reliance, pursuing foreign cooperation based on their national interests, and safeguarding regional peace and stability.    Xi stressed that China has always maintained that the status of the Latin American and Caribbean region as a zone of peace should not be undermined, the course of development and revitalization of Latin American and Caribbean countries should not be disrupted, and the right of Latin American and Caribbean countries to independently choose their cooperation partners should not be interfered with.    Noting Ecuador highly values China's position and role, Noboa said Ecuador is always willing to be a good friend of China on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.    After the talks, the two heads of state attended a signing ceremony for multiple cooperation agreements in areas such as green industry, economic and trade cooperation, the digital economy and people's livelihood.    Prior to the talks in the Great Hall of the People, Xi held a welcome ceremony for Noboa. Xi also hosted a welcome banquet for him in the evening.                     。特朗普政府出台的惩罚性关税现已正式生效，加拿大也将推出自身的报复性关税予以回击。美国《大西洋月刊》分析指，事情或许还远未画上句号。特朗普向来以先放出威胁、随后又出尔反尔闻名。

二 | 战事打打停停，最后往往只是一场作秀。本届政府做事几乎从不考虑下一步。除非爆发一场由特朗普挑起、规模巨大的石油危机，否则美加之间目前的僵局很难在短期内化解。特朗普政府对加拿大有一个固有思路：美国体量更大、实力更强、经济更富裕，加拿大迟早会屈服于特朗普提出的各项要求。可这个核心判断本身就是错的。不可否认，特朗普能够给加拿大造成比加拿大反噬美国更大的伤害。但贸易战胜负的决定因素，并不仅仅是谁能让对方承受更多损失。同样关键的，是谁更扛得住伤痛。特朗普没能认清这个道理，这也是他在伊朗战事中失利、并且正在输掉多场贸易战的根源。相比于特朗普，加拿大总理马克・卡尼在国内拥有更高的民意支持，可以承受贸易战带来的损失。当下加拿大民调显示，全国民众紧密团结在政府周围，出于对特朗普治下美国的反感与不信任，举国上下斗志高昂。一项民调表明，在加拿大人眼中，特朗普执政下的美国，是比俄罗斯更迫在眉睫的安全威胁。三分之二民众支持政府在贸易谈判当中采取强硬立场，仅有不到四分之一的加拿大人认为美国值得信任。

三 | 与此同时，卡尼支持率大约维持在60%。在多党制国家，这是一个十分亮眼的数据。

四 | 受特朗普敌对政策冲击，加拿大经济此前已经承压。去年出口下滑、经济增速放缓。不过今年，加拿大迎来转机：特朗普发起的伊朗战争，叠加美国国内通胀，抬升了石油、天然气、矿产以及农产品价格，加拿大居民收入重新回暖。加之本国公共债务水平偏低，加拿大通胀保持在低位。美国30年期国债融资利率达到5.3%，而加拿大仅为4.2%。反观特朗普这边，则麻烦缠身。

五 | 《金融时报》一篇报道标题写道：“特朗普面临经济困局：40万亿美元债务、6.7%房贷利率、5美元一升柴油”。除此之外，特朗普支持率已经跌至33%，并且还在快速下滑。

美国总统特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼耶鲁大学预算实验室的数据显示，关税带来的直接税费以及物价抬升等间接成本，每年会让普通美国家庭多支出1100美元。想要单独拆分出加拿大关税造成的损失并不容易，但铝材价格可以作为一项参考指标。

六 | 2024年，美国消耗的铝制品当中有四分之一来自加拿大，加拿大是美国最大铝供应国。最终结果就是：欧洲、日本的铝价大约每吨3000美元，美国铝价近乎每吨5000美元，啤酒罐、医院基建在内几乎所有商品成本随之上涨。尽管加拿大经济体量远小于美国，但其政府决策更加理性务实，可以精准制定反制举措，最大限度维护本国利益。

七 | 加拿大各省酒类商店禁售美国葡萄酒与烈酒之后，美国酒类产品对加出口额暴跌80%。加拿大市场规模不算庞大，但酒类禁令造成的冲击远超预期。出口加拿大的美国酒水需要专门定制标签来满足当地法规，目前超100万瓶原本销往加拿大的葡萄酒被迫积压，如果重新更换包装，很难转卖到其他市场。有27个美国州将加拿大列为头号出口市场。俄亥俄州30%的出口商品销往加拿大，密歇根州近40%出口目的地是加拿大。

八 | 今年这两个州都将举行联邦参议员选举以及州长换届选举。特朗普的政策不仅会危及共和党在摇摆州密歇根的选情，就连传统红州俄亥俄，选情也陡然生出变数。上述州份的选举结果，有可能决定参议院控制权花落谁家，也直接关乎明年特朗普会不会因违法、腐败问题面临国会的实质性追责。

九 | 特朗普打贸易战的逻辑，和伊朗战事如出一辙：实力更强的一方总能赢。体量优势固然举足轻重，但并不能决定一切。特朗普反复公开宣称，本次贸易战的终极目标，是把加拿大变成美国第51个州。他这么做仅仅是为了让美国在地图上版图看起来更大。为了这个只能取悦极端支持者的目标，特朗普不惜牺牲美国最重要的贸易伙伴关系，甚至赌上自身全部政治筹码。

十 | 这场由特朗普挑起的贸易战，几乎得不到美国民众支持，领导这场博弈的政府也饱受本国民众诟病，即便达成目标，绝大多数美国人都会觉得毫无意义，甚至疯狂。与之相反，绝大多数加拿大人支持这场贸易抗争，本国政府拥有广泛民意根基，斗争目标是捍卫国家独立与民族尊严。

十一 | 就算实力偏弱，只要再多坚持几个月，也完全有机会赢得这场博弈。