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Investments in Asia Could Exceed Merger & Acquisition in the West Because of Sanctions, Says Expert_我的网站

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一 | K图 601899_0 K图 02899_0 　　8月21日晚间，国内“矿茅”紫金矿业（601899.SH/2899.HK）发布2026年半年度报告。报告期内，该公司实现营业收入1941.78亿元，和上年同期相比（同比）增长15.78%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为391.70亿元，同比增长68.17%。

二 |
　　报告显示，紫金矿业经营活动产生的现金流量净额达555亿元，同比增长92.41%，现金流充裕稳定。期末资产总额5414亿元，归母净资产2059亿元，资产负债率49.55%，自2012年以来首次降至50%以下。　　值得一提的是，在半年报披露的同时，紫金矿业年度中期红利已于同日到账。 Ambuj Sonal, Associate Partner at Link Legal, a firm tracking mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and joint ventures, among others, spoke with Sputnik about cross-border investments in the era of growing uncertainty and the impact this will have on M&A activity in 2022 and beyond.,Sputnik: In the past two years, many restrictions have been imposed on foreign investments globally, mainly for reasons of national security. What effect have such regulatory changes had on cross-border mergers and acquisitions?,Ambuj: The primary reasons for implementing such additional scrutiny were to control the misuse of the uncertain situation and opportunistic investment behavior. Indeed, these restrictions affected cross-border deals globally in early 2020. For example, the European Commission Report on foreign investment flows [released in November 2021] suggested that foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to European countries declined by approximately 71 percent during the time of COVID.,Although these economies had amended regulations to protect their domestic companies from 'corporate raiders', this deterred foreign investors and caused a substantial decline in inbound M&A deals.,Having said that, the global cross-border M&A activity showed huge improvements in the second half of 2020, when most of the countries had started vaccination and adopted other measures to control the pandemic.,Reports show that from the second half of 2020, the volume of global deals increased by approximately 29 percent, and deal values soared by roughly 156 percent, indicating that cross-border M&A deals enjoyed a quicker recovery from COVID.,Sputnik: India has also amended foreign investment rules, explicitly targeting countries with which it shares land borders. How has it affected M&A activity and overall foreign investment flow, primarily from China?,Ambuj: The Indian government, in Press Note 3 (PN3) in April 2020, decreed that all investments from entities (direct or indirect) with which India shares a land border, would have to be made under the 'approval route' and would need security clearance.,PN3 also covered investments where beneficial ownership belonged to China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. Initially, investors from these nations approached the Indian Government for approval. However, the government was silent about these approvals until the first year of PN3.,According to data disclosed under a recent application filed under the Right to Information Act, the Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has revealed that it received 382 FDI proposals from Chinese entities after PN3, of which 80 proposals have been approved.,The DPIIT made the commitment that appropriate due diligence and FDI approvals from Chinese entities would be scrutinized on a case-by-case basis. Before PN3, Chinese firms were actively investing in technology and e-commerce businesses in India, particularly in start-ups.,Up to 2019, India received foreign investments of approximately $3.4Bln from China and Hong Kong. However, post PN3, the total investment from China and Hong Kong has declined to $952Mln or 72 percent.,Having said that, despite COVID-19 and a huge drop in Chinese investments, India has received the highest annual FDI ($83.57Bln) in the 2021-22 financial year, and has emerged as a preferred investment destination.,The steps taken by the Indian government during the past few years have affected the increasing volumes of inbound FDI, which has led to record levels.,Sputnik: The geopolitical scenario has undergone tectonic changes because of tensions between China and the US, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Decoupling is a new buzzword that many say is part of de-globalization. How is this affecting mergers and acquisitions globally, especially in India?,Ambuj: 'Decoupling' refers to a situation where another country replaces a particular country in a global and extended supply chain. 'De-globalization' would constitute a step beyond 'decoupling' where activities that are performed offshore are brought back home completely.,Tensions between the US and China have caused a major drop in cross-border M&A deals for these two countries (an almost 95 percent drop from 2016 to 2020) primarily because of geopolitical, trade, and tariff uncertainties.,On the other hand, global M&A deals were badly hit because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to data provided by Reuters, the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the value of global M&A activities to plunge 29 percent in the first quarter of 2022.,The geopolitical scenario will most probably result in a complex and disrupted global supply chain. The present conflicts such as between US and China, and Russia and Ukraine have given rise to debate about whether we are heading towards 'decoupling', which might slowly lead to 'de-globalization'.,Decoupling and de-globalization will affect the global economy adversely and could result in long-standing inflation.,So far as India is concerned, the geopolitical situation has caused unexpected price rises, disrupted supply chains, and introduced other uncertainties because of blocked inventory. This has affected major sectors such as textiles, plastics, steel, pharma, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), etc.,Although such geopolitical situations have majorly affected M&A activity in Asia, investments in India might see a rise. Mostly, the manufacturing sector could benefit, considering how easy it is to do business and the cost-effective labor in the Indian market.,Other European countries are already considering shifting their manufacturing facilities from China to India. This is a result of the Indian government's efforts to boost foreign investments, which has made India a preferred investment destination.,Sputnik: Despite unprecedented sanctions by the West, most Asian countries, including India, have carved out a space for themselves in this crisis and are maximizing their geopolitical leverage without limiting economic opportunities. Given this backdrop, do you think Asian countries will outpace their global peers in the M&A sector?,Ambuj: India has strong business relationships with Russia, especially in the defense, oil and gas, and automotive sectors.,Because of the sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has been isolated from global financial systems and trading. Therefore, strong support and implementation of such sanctions may not be viewed as a beneficial step.,So far as opportunities are concerned, India can be seen as an alternative supplier of manufactured exports to the West. However, the preference would be given to countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ie Taiwan, Korea and Japan. This may result in major investments in Asian countries, which may exceed the western market's M&A activities in deal volume and size.,From a cross-border M&A point of view, India remains a preferred destination with an FDI of approximately $83.57Bln and 2,064 M&A deals in the 2021-22 financial year, which puts it in top spot globally. Mauritius and Singapore remain the top investors for India, and we can see India being comfortably placed as an attractive business nation.,Sputnik: Recently, a large number of western firms have announced their intention to leave the Russian market. Has this created space for Indian firms to buy assets or to invest in Russia?,Ambuj: Yes. Judging from the silence of the Indian government on the subject of sanctions, Indian firms are keen to capitalize on the geopolitical conflict as an opportunity to invest and gain a share of the Russian market. Opportunities are available mainly in industries serving the pharmaceutical, oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors.,Furthermore, since big global companies such as Apple, fast retail and Ikea have shut or kept their operations in Russia on hold, mid-size Indian companies in the retail and fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sectors are also interested in doing business in India.,Additionally, since supply chains between Russia and -European countries are blocked, Indian suppliers are looking to initiate strong trade relations by offering undisrupted supply to Russia.,Sputnik: Reports claim that Russian businesses and other big players have been looking for ways to invest their money in Asia. What kind of investment opportunities does the Indian market offer them?,Ambuj: Unlike the UK, India does not offer any scheme like a 'Golden Visa' for Russian businessmen who can trade for their residential status in lieu of multi-million investments in the country. However, investment opportunities in India remain plentiful and attractive. As India's Prime Minister said at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year: "This is the best time to invest in India.!,Over the years, the Indo-Russian bilateral relationship has developed into a comprehensive partnership that includes cooperation in several high-technology sectors.,India and Russia have projected that bilateral trade will be worth $30Bln by 2025. This will boost the India-Russia business relationship, and many opportunities await Russian investors in India.,The key areas for Russian investments to focus on in India are telecommunications, automobiles, industrial services, oil and gas, and medical/surgical appliances.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。

三 | 据此前公告，紫金矿业于7月10日已推出了111亿元规模的中期分红方案，中期分红时点大幅提前，紫金矿业称“为积极回报全体股东，使投资者尽早分享公司经营发展成果”。　　而结合此前已完成的101亿元年度分红，紫金矿业在2026年自然年度内的累计分红总额首次突破200亿元大关，达到212亿元。　　报告期内，紫金矿业主营金属产量稳中有进：矿产金产量达到47吨，同比增长13%；矿产铜产量为53.4万吨，在剔除卡莫阿铜矿减产等不可抗力因素后，实现了5%的同比增长。　　同时值得关注的是，被称为公司“第三增长极”的锂板块，上半年实现当量碳酸锂产量4.4万吨，同比增幅高达496%，开始形成规模化的利润贡献。此外，马诺诺锂矿已于今年5月提前投产、3Q盐湖及拉果措盐湖产能稳步爬坡。

四 | 　　钼、钨、锡等稀贵战略金属产能顺势释放，硫精矿、硫酸等硫资源综合利用效益显著，成为紫金矿业新的利润增长亮点。

五 | 　　紫金矿业综合毛利率达37.75%，同比提升14个百分点。其中矿产品毛利率69.34%，同比提升9.11个百分点。　　放眼全球矿业格局，2026年正处于关键矿产战略价值重估的历史性窗口。一方面，AI算力革命与能源转型叠加，铜、锂等新能源金属的结构性需求缺口持续扩大，高盛预测全年铜均价约12650美元/吨，全球精炼铜市场预计出现33万吨左右供应缺口。　　另一方面，地缘政治博弈加剧，资源民族主义抬头，海外优质资产的获取难度和合规成本显著上升。普华永道报告显示，2025年全球矿业并购交易总规模突破700亿美元，但矿业开发资本仅550亿美元，占全球能源投资不足2%，中长期供给约束难以缓解。　　2026年也是紫金矿业第九届董事会履新开局之年。新年第一天，被外界称为“中国金王”的陈景河正式宣布即日起正式退休，结束长达44年的矿业生涯。58岁的接棒者邹来昌在当天正式出任董事长。陈景河将邹来昌和新任总裁林泓富称为自己过去的“左膀右臂”和紫金矿业的功臣。　　报告写道，报告期内，面对全球格局深刻演变、地缘冲突不断升级、大宗商品价格宽幅震荡等复杂外部形势，公司保持战略定力。整体来看，紫金矿业目前战略布局为“金铜锂为主，多矿种协同”。　　紫金矿业最新还强调了体系化技术创新和数智化，这也反映出公司新一届董事会正在发起由传统矿业向科技驱动、数智化转型的变革。这也意味着公司在进一步重构成本和效率。　　根据披露，上半年，拉果措盐湖全球首创的钛系+铝系联合吸附提锂工艺实现工业应用，铜钼分选、光电抛废等技术推广显著提升了资源综合利用效益。